HMPPS Transgender | Nonbinary (TG|NB) Statistics

from original HMPPS Offender Equalities Reports

As per HMPPS Offender Equality Reports 2016, 20-17, 2018 & 2019 (links above).

MOJ also happens to administer the "Gender Recognition Panel" (GRP)

Caution: the GRC statistics link to national totals and not to GRCs granted to offenders in prison.

For the purposes of inclusion "Prisoners who have already transitioned and have a full GRC are excluded from this dataset."

Those with objective evidence of transgender status, cease to be "transgender" - Seriously?

MOJ /HMPPS definition of 'transgender'- "in-transition but NO Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC)"

Definition of "Statistic"

Real Statistic = Numerical Value + Precise Description in Words

Statistics have been given a very bad wrap, the real ones as opposed to the ones that generate that old saying "...lies, damn lies, and statistics...", mistakenly used to dismissed ALL statistics in a classic throwing out of the baby with the bathwater! I like the wiki definition of statistics "a discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data". In order to achieve that a numerical value must have a clear definition in words of that numerical value, with a clarity of boundaries between one numerical quantity and another. Words and definitions, are therefore extremely important for accurate statistics.

Sex-Differential in Statistics on MOJ-Defined "Transgender" Offenders from Year 1 (24 Nov 2016)

In the table above you can see that even in the first year of HMPPS data collection of transgender offender statistics, there is a clear disproportion that looks suspiciously like a sex-differential. For the three succeeding years, while the raw data increases in line with what you might expect with increasing confidence of disclosure, what emerges when you run a percentage of the total, is a remarkably constant 79-80% of all "transgender" offender are MALE ie transwomen (transgender males). The first year has been discounted consistent with good practice i) statistically immature processes (both staff and inmates) ii) the 79-80% percentage is consistent for 2017 & 2018 & 2019.

A number of points arise:

1) MOJ definition "Transgender" means "In-transition, recognised as genuine by prison authorities but NO GRC" - the only objective legal evidence of transgender status.

2) Offenders with GRCs are likely to show the same sort of sex differential ie 80% : 18% male to female, therefore the actual total will be higher.

3) DNS = "did not state" are also likely to demonstrate this same 80% : 18% female ratio...

  • UNLESS or UNTIL the MOJ publishes sex dis-aggregated transgender statistics.

  • UNLESS or UNTIL the MOJ publishes transgender statistics which include offenders with GRCs

  • with information as to GRCs per annum granted to offenders currently serving custodial sentences in prison

The onus is upon the MOJ to publish accurate ie sex-dis-aggregated "transgender" statistics